Prospect Report: Cole Roederer

Young outfielder sells out for power more than he should. A solid year in A+ would do wonders for his future projection.

Cole Roederer via Clinton Cole (@cdcole55)

How acquired: MLB Draft 2nd round 2018

The Cubs draft class in 2018 is loaded with talent that could define the next wave of talent to make Wrigley. The class features the first draftee to make it to the majors, the top prospect in the system, and a pitcher with “some of the highest upside in the system”, but sweet-swinging Cole Roederer has as much talent as anyone in the class. Cole was a surprising selection in the draft as he was coming off an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and had a strong commitment to UCLA to play baseball. A few weeks after the Cubs inked Roederer to an above-slot, $1.2 million offer, Cole scratched “hit a home run in pro ball” off his bucket list.

Hit

Roederer has one of the purest swings in the organization. He starts in a good balanced position and brings the barrel through the zone in an efficient manner. He can go the other way and drive the ball into the gap, but in 2019 he sold out for power form his pull-side. This definitely led to more swing and miss. He sported a K% of 25% in with a Midwest League (MWL) league-average 101 wRC+ in 2019. Based on 2019 game action, it’s a below-average hit tool, but a reinvigorated effort to use an all-fields approach this offseason would help the hit tool improve as he climbs the minor league ladder. I ultimately think Cole demonstrates at least an average hit tool in 2021. The foundation is there for an above-average hit grade, but I’ll refrain from that proclamation until 2021 games start up.

Cole Roederer Spray Chart from Baseball Savant

Power

Cole has some juice in the bat, but it’s all to his pull-side at present (see spray chart above). His bad habits to sell out for power held him back from more success in the MWL, but it’s area that both Cole and the Cubs player development staff are keenly aware of. Still, you can’t discount the excellent power to rightfield. As one of the youngest players (19-year-old) in the MWL, he crushed 9 home runs, which would have been good for 33rd in the league. Above-average power is 19-22 home runs a year according to Fangraphs and I believe Roederer can get there. Cubs officials spoke about Roederer’s experience during the 2020 instructional league. While providing an updated on added strength, Cubs VP of Player Development, Matt Dorey, also added that the Cubs are working with Cole to go towards the middle of the field.

“The big thing for Cole is not selling out for power to his pull side,” Dorey said. “He hit a long home run at our big league park the other day, and he has enough power to get himself in trouble. He is making better decisions on changeups and offspeed pitches. That’s really been the focus, working more to the middle of the field. His power will happen organically and he doesn’t have to manufacture it.”

Chicago Cubs VP of Player Development Matt Dorey via Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline
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Field/Arm

Cole has such strong instincts that his skills in CF play up considerably. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him eventually land in LF, but he has the chops to stay in CF for a few years. What I have been most impressed with is Roederer’s ability to move laterally into the gaps as well as come in on a sinking liners to make the catch. Widely regarded as one of the most difficult plays, outfields coming in to catch a ball hit right at them represents a true test of his ability in the field. His arm may hold him back from being a plus defensive CF.

The arm was barely average in 2019, although I only got a handful of looks on it. The Cubs have had some success with arm-strengthening programs, so it’ll be a wait-and-see approach on final grades here. If he doesn’t make improvements, his arm strength may precipitate a move to LF down the line.

Speed

Roederer moves gracefully out in the field and on the bases. He’s picked up double-digit steals each year, but steals aren’t the most critical factor for long-term success. The speed in concert with his instincts allows Cole to play a very solid defensive CF. Like all players, this grade may drop as he adds more muscle, but he starts with a good foundation.

Ethan Hearn and Cole Roederer from Instructs by Rich Biesterfeld (@biest22)

Future Projection

Cole Roederer has been overshadowed by the success of his draft-mates, but it’d be foolish to sleep on the young outfielder. There’s a reason he was comped to Red Sox LF, Andrew Benintendi, in draft reports. He still displays the same tool-kit as the Boston outfielder. Roederer’s .224/.319/.365 may not seem overly exciting, but at the same age, Benintendi slashed a similar .276/.368/.333 line in college. The age 21 season approaching should be a strong marker for Cole’s future projection. Using improved strength and a commitment to drive the ball to all-fields, Roederer should get a chance to compete against strong competition at High-A South Bend. He has as much talent as almost anyone in the organization and the Cubs are committed to helping him put all the tools together.

StatisticNameDefinitionCalculation
wRC+Weighted runs created plusAttempts to quantify total offensive value and extrapolate the data into total runs. It takes park effects into account. 100 wRC+ is average.See specific calculation at Fangraphs

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