“You can’t have too many outfielders?”: Alexander Canario

Alexander Canario via Todd Johnson (@CubsCentral08)

Prelude: The Chicago Cubs charted their course. While that is without their on-field captain and rough seas lie ahead at the major league level in the near term, the organization brought in a host of players that one can dream of impacting the next great Cubs team. It’s become a saying that “you can’t have too many shortstops”; it’s less common to say that about outfielders. After compiling perhaps the deepest crops of shortstop prospects in organizational history, the Cubs dramatically filled out their outfield pipeline by adding Greg Deichmann (not listed below), Kevin Alcantara, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alexander Canario at the deadline. I’ll examine each of these players in the series.

Part 1: Kevin Alcantara

Part 2: Alexander Canario

Part 3: Pete Crow-Armstrong

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Alexander Canario

The 21-year-old outfielder has been lighting the world on fire since he was traded to the Cubs and immediately promoted to Hi-A South Bend. In 14 games since the trade, Canario is showcasing well above-average power, but also above-average K%. He’s slashing .259/.306/.517 with 4 home runs and has a .359 wOBA. His K% sits at 29.0% with a walk rate of 6.5%. The eye test matches the stats with Canario struggling against breaking balls and demolishing mistake pitches. While that may dampen your excitement, the 21-year-old is getting his first chance of prolonged playing time post COVID and having success. Like Alcantara, Canario incorporates high-level tools, albeit more related to overwhelming power carrying the projection. He also will take patience and a lot of hard work with the Cubs hitting infrastructure, but the payoff could well be worth it.

In the write-up of the trade, I had this to say:

Canario is a huge upside prospect with a very high variance. He has impressive power that is generated from incredible bat speed. Canario represents a player that is a good test for the Cubs hitting infrastructure. He did take some time to adjust in the early going of the season (hardly an uncommon sentiment in a post COVID season) and since June 2nd, Canario has put up a .265/.340/.482 line with a 112 wRC+ and 26.6 K%/10.2 BB%.

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Mechanics: Canario holds his hands above his head and uses a very small leg kick that provides balance and weight transfer. He starts from an open stance. His head stays very stable through the point of contact. He appears to generate significant force through the zone.

His swing and scouting report is very similar to Teoscar Hernández of the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Future projection: Canario has loud power, but the K% stands as an area for improvement. It’s uncommon for hitters to consistently strikeout approximately 30% with low walk totals and immediately produce at the big-league level. He is a long way from Wrigley and there is a high degree of risk in his profile, but Canario has the potential to eventually produce above-average production. Continuing the comparison to Teoscar Hernández, his line in the minors and majors produced the following:

Teoscar Hernández via Fangraphs
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That 2014 season for Teoscar Hernández is remarkably similar to Canario (update: apparently his agent agrees; see tweet above). Hernández entered the 2015 season ranked as the #9 prospect in the Houston system by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. As you can also see, it has taken Hernández a few years to adjust to major league pitching. He’s currently experiencing a breakout for the Blue Jays. Hernández offers a glimpse at a possible offensive ceiling for Canario, but reaching that ceiling will require significant progress in the next few seasons. Like Alcantara, Canario is another exciting prospect, but the risk in his profile is just one of the reasons “you can’t have too many outfielders”.

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Greg Zumach

Following the Cubs minor leagues and the MLB draft has been my passion since I became a fan. I try to focus on deeper dives into players along with MLB Draft content throughout the year.

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